In brief
As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, Europe is grappling with a renewed energy crisis reminiscent of past turmoil. Leaders face pressures from skyrocketing energy prices and the threat of voter backlash. There's a growing sentiment that Europe must diversify its energy sources to mitigate reliance on external powers, particularly the US, while addressing immediate economic concerns.
The knock-on effects of the conflict now whipping through the Middle East are awakening ghosts of crises past that shook the European Union.
Seven months into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, the President of the European Commission stood at her podium in the European Parliament and accused Russia of manipulating the EU's energy market.
They prefer to flare the gas than to deliver it, proclaimed Ursula von der Leyen, as spiraling energy prices hit consumers across the continent. This market is not functioning anymore.
This is a war on our energy, a war on our economy, a war on our values, and a war on our future, she declared, insisting that Europe was already pivoting away from Russian gas and toward more dependable partners such as the US and Norway.
But fast forward four years and you find deep energy-linked frustration in the heart of Europe once again.
We swore we'd learn. We promised things would change but here we are, a highly frustrated European diplomat told me. He asked for anonymity so as to be able to speak openly.
The focus of his teeth grinding was Europe's growing energy shock, triggered by the burning conflict in the Middle East and threatening to dominate a summit of European leaders in Brussels on Thursday.
Instead of concentrating on much-needed long-term plans - about how to make Europe more competitive in this increasingly volatile world, [European] prime ministers and presidents are now in a panic over [energy] prices, worried about angry voters and scrambling for short-term solutions.
Just like the crisis after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Different conflict, same European divisions; same dilemmas over energy. We can't keep going round in these circles. Something's got to give. Every time there's an oil and gas crisis, everyone thinks it's a turning point, says Rusi's Dan Marks.
In 2022, Ursula von der Leyen accused Russia of manipulating the EU's energy market. Volatile global oil prices sparked by the conflict in the Gulf are now impacting Europe significantly, despite many European nations cutting ties with Russian energy supplies.
This choice between Russian energy and global market volatility is unfavorable for Europe, Marks warned, as the continent seeks to stabilize energy supply amid rising prices, while also facing pressure from voters agitated by escalating costs.
The trade-offs are complex: while Europe's reliance on LNG imports from the US provides a cushion against some crises, it leaves the continent vulnerable to global price fluctuations triggered by events like Iran's conflict.
This dynamic question of energy security will be pivotal as European leaders meet to discuss immediate responses and formulate long-term strategies to navigate an increasingly uncertain energy landscape.
