In brief
Stemming from the April 2026 parliamentary vote, Likud secured 30 of 120 seats in the Knesset—eight short of the 38 required for a traditional coalition with its right‑wing allies. According to the Associated Press, negotiators are weighing four principal scenarios: a Likud‑led right‑wing coalition, a centrist–moderate union with the Zionist Union, a partnership with the Arab party Ra’am and nationalist groups, or a Bennett‑chaired government. Each option carries distinct policy implications and risks for Israel’s domestic and foreign policy.
On April 28, 2026, Israel’s Knesset election left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party with 30 seats, eight short of the 38 needed for a coalition with its right‑wing partners, according to the Associated Press. The shortfall means coalition negotiations must now aim at a 61‑seat majority to form a stable government.
AP analysts outline four increasingly likely configurations for the upcoming parliamentary talks. First, a right‑wing consolidation could bring Likud together with the National Unity Party, Hatnuah, and Jewish Home‑aligned factions, also appealing to far‑right groups such as Otzma Yehudit and Kach, to reach the 61‑seat threshold.
Second, a centrist‑moderate alliance might unite Likud with the Zionist Union, led by former Labor chair Yair Lapid, and the centrist Yesh Atid party, creating a broader governing majority while blending conservative and liberal policy platforms.
Third, an Arab‑nationalist partnership could see Likud forging a bloc with the Arab party Ra’am and the National Unity slate, potentially expanding civic engagement while retaining a conservative policy base.
Finally, if negotiations stall, a Bennett‑led anti‑Netanyahu coalition could form. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and his New Hope party might secure a new government with the support of the Zionist Union and centre‑left parties, effectively ending Netanyahu’s longest tenure in office.
Each scenario presents distinct political costs: a right‑wing grouping risks alienating moderate voters but could push hard‑line agendas; a centrist coalition would appease a broader electorate but demand concessions on core Likud priorities such as settlement expansion and security measures; an Arab‑nationalist alliance might broaden civic participation yet face strong opposition within Netanyahu’s ranks; a Bennett‑led government signals a major realignment but must prove its stability amid a fragmented Knesset.
As the negotiations unfold, Israel’s political actors are working aggressively to secure the necessary alliances, and the government that emerges will shape the nation’s policy direction for the coming year and influence its external relationships.
