Yemen's future hangs in the balance after a dramatic turn of events in the south which have brought Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into unprecedented direct confrontation and threaten the country with partition. Both Gulf powers have intervened on behalf of Yemen's internationally recognised government in the country's long-running civil war, but a fracturing of the alliance has seen them backing different rival groups on the ground, one of whom is now pushing to declare the independence of a breakaway state in southern Yemen.
On Friday, the UAE-backed force declared that a war had begun, accusing Saudi-backed ground forces of launching an attack alongside air strikes by the Saudi air force. Yemen's civil war broke out in 2014 and has plunged the already impoverished country into years of deadly violence and one of the world's worst hunger crises.
At the start of the war, the Iran-backed rebel Houthi movement took control of most of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, from the government. The conflict escalated in 2015, when a coalition of Arab states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a military campaign to restore the government's rule. A ceasefire has de-escalated the conflict with the Houthis in recent years and led to a freezing of the front lines.
However, the Saudi-backed ruling coalition – the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in 2022 to unite various anti-Houthi factions – has frayed. The vast majority of southern Yemen has been taken by UAE-backed separatists, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is formally part of the coalition.
The infighting escalated on December 2, when the STC launched a large-scale military offensive in eastern Yemen, rapidly taking control of territory from government forces, including the oil-rich Hadramawt province that borders Saudi Arabia. This offensive was deemed necessary to restore stability by the STC, but branded a rebellion by the PLC, raising concerns of further fragmentation of Yemen and regional chaos.
The situation intensified with air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition, resulting in casualties and destruction of military assets linked to the UAE. Following a unilateral decision by Yemen's Presidential Council to cancel defense agreements with the UAE, the situation is precarious as both nations wrestle for influence in the war-torn nation.
Despite denials from the UAE regarding military shipments, the implications of its involvement remain significant, affecting not just internal dynamics but also the broader regional security landscape. With rising tensions and the ongoing humanitarian crisis, the international community watches closely as Yemen teeters on the brink of a wider conflict.
On Friday, the UAE-backed force declared that a war had begun, accusing Saudi-backed ground forces of launching an attack alongside air strikes by the Saudi air force. Yemen's civil war broke out in 2014 and has plunged the already impoverished country into years of deadly violence and one of the world's worst hunger crises.
At the start of the war, the Iran-backed rebel Houthi movement took control of most of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, from the government. The conflict escalated in 2015, when a coalition of Arab states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a military campaign to restore the government's rule. A ceasefire has de-escalated the conflict with the Houthis in recent years and led to a freezing of the front lines.
However, the Saudi-backed ruling coalition – the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in 2022 to unite various anti-Houthi factions – has frayed. The vast majority of southern Yemen has been taken by UAE-backed separatists, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is formally part of the coalition.
The infighting escalated on December 2, when the STC launched a large-scale military offensive in eastern Yemen, rapidly taking control of territory from government forces, including the oil-rich Hadramawt province that borders Saudi Arabia. This offensive was deemed necessary to restore stability by the STC, but branded a rebellion by the PLC, raising concerns of further fragmentation of Yemen and regional chaos.
The situation intensified with air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition, resulting in casualties and destruction of military assets linked to the UAE. Following a unilateral decision by Yemen's Presidential Council to cancel defense agreements with the UAE, the situation is precarious as both nations wrestle for influence in the war-torn nation.
Despite denials from the UAE regarding military shipments, the implications of its involvement remain significant, affecting not just internal dynamics but also the broader regional security landscape. With rising tensions and the ongoing humanitarian crisis, the international community watches closely as Yemen teeters on the brink of a wider conflict.
