Potential Impacts of US Strikes on Iran: Seven Scenarios Explored

Wed Feb 04 2026 08:37:58 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

As tensions escalate between the US and Iran, a comprehensive analysis of the possible consequences of a military strike provides insight into a volatile situation.

With the potential for the US to strike Iran looming, experts propose seven distinct scenarios ranging from targeted strikes leading to a transition to democracy, to the collapse of the regime resulting in chaos. Outcomes could significantly impact regional stability and global security.

What Could Happen If the US Strikes Iran? Here Are Seven Scenarios

The US appears poised to strike Iran within days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not. If no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran, and President Trump decides to order US forces to attack, here are seven possible outcomes:

1. Targeted Strikes with Minimal Casualties

One optimistic scenario suggests precise US strikes on military targets could destabilize the Iranian regime, paving the way for a democratic transition. However, past interventions in Iraq and Libya suggest that this result is far from guaranteed.

2. Regime Moderation

Another potential outcome could involve the Iranian regime surviving but moderating its aggressive policies towards its neighbors and protesters. This 'Venezuelan model' relies on whether the ruling elite feels pressure to change.

3. Military Rule After Collapse

Many experts believe that if the regime falls, it could be replaced by a military junta dominated by the IRGC, given the lack of a robust opposition and the regime's willingness to use force to maintain control.

4. Retaliation Against US Forces

Iran has vowed to retaliate, potentially targeting US bases and allied nations, as demonstrated in past conflicts. This could escalate regional tensions significantly.

5. Mining the Gulf

Iran might resort to laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, threatening global oil supplies.

6. Swarm Attacks on US Naval Forces

A less likely but still possible scenario involves Iran conducting swarm attacks against US warships, which could result in significant naval casualties.

7. Chaos in the Aftermath

If the regime collapses, there is a significant risk of civil disorder akin to the chaos witnessed in Syria or Libya, leading to a humanitarian crisis. Such a shift could cause instability throughout the region, creating a power vacuum and exacerbating ethnic tensions.

As the situation unfolds, President Trump's decisions will have profound and far-reaching implications, not just for Iran, but for the entire Middle East and beyond.