Critical Roadblocks in the Russia-Ukraine Peace Negotiations

Tue Dec 30 2025 22:27:07 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. acknowledge a potential peace deal is near, yet significant obstacles remain. Key sticking points, including territorial disputes and the management of a crucial nuclear plant, threaten to derail agreements.

As Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. hint at nearing a peace deal after years of conflict, two major obstacles threaten progress: territorial claims in Eastern Ukraine and the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. President Zelensky remains skeptical of Russian intentions, while mutual distrust complicates resolution efforts. Additionally, discussions around security guarantees and financial compensations add layers of complexity to the negotiations.

Russia, the US, and Ukraine agree that a deal on ending almost four years of full-scale war is edging closer but, in the words of President Donald Trump, one or two very thorny, very tough issues remain.

Two of the trickiest issues in Washington's 20-point plan involve territory and the fate of Europe's biggest nuclear plant, which is currently occupied by Russia.

The Kremlin agrees with Trump that negotiations are at a final stage, and Zelensky's next step is to meet European leaders in France on 6 January, but any one of the sticking points could jeopardize a deal.

Fate of Ukraine's industrial heartland coveted by Putin

Vladimir Putin has not budged from his maximalist demand for the whole of Ukraine's industrial Donbas, although Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky has offered a compromise. Russian forces occupy most of the Luhansk region in the east but little more than 75% of Donetsk, and Putin wants it all, including the remaining fortress belt cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

He has proposed Ukrainian forces pull back from the area to create a demilitarised or free economic zone policed by Ukraine if the Russians pull back too. The current line of contact would then be monitored by international forces.

While Putin's agreement remains uncertain, there are indications of exhaustion on both sides, highlighting the potential for a breakthrough.

Ukraine's huge nuclear power plant in Russian hands

Since March 2022, Russia has occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant at Enerhodar, which is necessary to prevent a meltdown. The U.S. has proposed a joint management approach for the plant, a sensitive topic given the need for substantial investment and trust between parties.

Lack of mutual trust despite positive rhetoric

The lack of trust could impede movement on significant sticking points. Leaders like Zelensky and Trump expressed skepticism regarding the sincerity of Russian commitments. Additionally, ongoing allegations and counterclaims further strain the relationship.

Other sticking points that could derail the deal

Among other issues are security guarantees for Ukraine, the fate of Russian military presence, and financial compensations for the damage incurred during the conflict.

Could Ukrainians hold a vote on a deal?

Zelensky has indicated the need for public support through a referendum to validate any peace agreement, complicating negotiations as external parties, including Russia, express skepticism about the implications of a temporary ceasefire.

}