France's parliament – deadlocked for a year and more poisonously divided than it has been in decades – looks set to throw out yet another prime minister on Monday.
But the acute sense of drama surrounding this latest vote of confidence inside Paris's Assemblée Nationale is counterbalanced by a despondent consensus that the almost inevitable removal of 74-year-old François Bayrou, after nine relatively ineffectual months in office, will do nothing to break France's political stalemate.
It's a disaster. The situation is absolutely blocked, veteran political commentator Bruno Cautrès told the BBC.
Others have been even harsher in their diagnosis.
Marine Le Pen, parliamentary leader of the hard-right National Rally party, accused Bayrou of committing political suicide.
The prime minister, a consensus-seeking figure from south-west France with a tendency to frown and to bluster, initiated Monday's surprise vote himself, seeking, as he explained it, to shock politicians into agreeing on a way to tackle the country's looming debt crisis.
Describing France's spiralling national debt as a terribly dangerous period… a time of hesitation and turmoil, Bayrou warned there was a high risk of disorder and chaos if parliament failed to back his austerity budget with its aim to slash government spending by €44bn (£38bn).
He cautioned that failure to address a national debt of 114% of its annual economic output would burden future generations.
However, Bayrou's gamble looks almost certain to end in failure later on Monday. Despite some frantic last-minute discussions, it is becoming clear he simply doesn't have the votes.
Dissent within parliament has been exacerbated by President Emmanuel Macron's snap election in June 2024, which left the political landscape more chaotic than before.
In response to Bayrou's challenges, the public sentiment is shifting towards the right, embracing figures like Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally.
As protests loom, with grassroots movements calling for nationwide action, the future of governance in France remains uncertain.
The question remains: could the impending loss of Bayrou lead to fresh elections, or will Macron attempt to stabilize his minority government amidst growing tensions?
