In the wake of increasing speculation regarding the health of Ramzan Kadyrov, the long-serving Chechen strongman and ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, questions about the future leadership of Chechnya are becoming pressing. For two decades, Kadyrov has ruled the troubled region with a brutal grip, smashing dissent and promoting loyalty to the Kremlin in exchange for an unusual degree of autonomy and substantial financial support.
As Kadyrov, now 48, reportedly faces serious health issues, observers are left wondering who can successfully uphold his harsh regime once he is gone. His succession plans seem to hinge on his 17-year-old son, who recently celebrated his marriage and received blessings from President Putin. However, Russian laws stipulate that regional leaders must be at least 30 years old, complicating this potential scenario.
Other possible successors also emerge from the shadows, including individuals with controversial histories, such as one linked to the persecution of LGBTQ+ individuals and another who engages in military action in Ukraine.
Throughout his reign, Kadyrov has carved out a particular niche in Putin's autocracy, enjoying privileges that most regional governors do not. He leads what can be considered his personal militia and has established stringent Islamic laws that often contradict federal legislation. He also exercises a form of foreign policy, building ties with leaders from Gulf nations and positioning himself independently of Moscow’s directives.
Chechnya represents a unique case in Russia's broader military mobilization efforts. While the region was exempt from the general conscription of around 300,000 servicemen following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, reports indicate that some Chechens were dispatched to the frontlines as a form of retribution. Despite Kadyrov's early commitment of troops, the effectiveness of these forces remains dubious, leading critics to characterize them as “TikTok soldiers” due to their prominence on social media rather than on the battlefield.