Did Government Cuts Impact the Recent Texas Floods?

Sun Oct 19 2025 12:46:49 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

Experts weigh in on whether staffing reductions at the National Weather Service, introduced during the Trump administration, affected flood predictions in Texas.

In the wake of the Texas floods, some Democrats suggest that federal workforce cuts have hindered the National Weather Service's ability to predict such disasters. However, experts debate the actual impact of these cuts, noting that while the NWS has seen reductions, staffing levels during the flooding were adequate for timely warnings. Key vacancies in local offices raised concerns about communication effectiveness but did not seem to directly impede the NWS's operational capabilities.

In the aftermath of the devastating floods in Texas, some Democratic officials have pointed a finger at the cuts made to the federal workforce under the Trump administration, particularly in the area of meteorology. Senator Chris Murphy stated that “Accurate weather forecasting helps avoid fatal disasters,” suggesting that the staff reductions could have contributed to the impact of the floods.

In response, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed these claims, asserting that the National Weather Service (NWS) was adequately staffed. A closer examination by BBC Verify indicates that while there was a reduction in NWS personnel due to earlier efficiency measures, the staffing for the floods appeared sufficient.

During the Trump administration, proposals were made to cut the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) budget by 25%, which would affect the NWS going into the 2026 fiscal year. However, these cuts had not yet taken effect during the recent floods. Staffing reductions had already begun due to voluntary buyouts and early retirements resulting in the loss of approximately 600 employees from the NWS's workforce of 4,200. Consequently, some NWS offices reported a vacancy rate of 20%, double that of the previous decade.

Despite these reductions, experts have commented on the adequacy of the weather warnings provided during the floods. Avantika Gori, a civil and environmental engineering assistant professor at Rice University, noted that while forecasting extreme localised rainfall is inherently challenging, the NWS did issue necessary warnings. Andy Hazelton, a former NOAA climate scientist, echoed this sentiment, stating that the staff available effectively provided alerts.

Concerns have been raised about the potential impacts of staffing shortages on the coordination between local NWS offices and emergency services in Texas. Daniel Swain from UCLA highlighted that local offices may have struggled with communication, partly due to unfilled positions. The San Angelo and San Antonio offices, with existing vacancies for vital operational roles, could have benefited from these missing personnel.

However, both offices reportedly increased staffing for the flooding event, which is standard practice. According to NWS spokeswoman Erica Grow Cei, forecasts and warnings were distributed promptly, with additional personnel on duty during the crisis.

Discussions also surfaced regarding the alleged reduction in weather balloon launches, a critical method for collecting atmospheric data. Meteorologist John Morales claimed a 20% decrease, which some attributed to budget cuts affecting forecasting capabilities. Nevertheless, NWS data indicated that regions impacted by the floods, including Del Rio, conducted balloon launches successfully, supporting the overall assessment that forecasts were appropriate given the circumstances.

Overall, while the staffing cuts and their potential impacts are under scrutiny, experts generally assert that the flood warnings issued by the NWS were timely and adequate.