TYLER, Texas (AP) — Celia Monreal worries about her husband’s knee problems and the looming healthcare costs they may soon face. Monreal, 47, and her husband Jorge, 57, rely on healthcare through the Affordable Care Act marketplace, but with tax credits set to expire this year, they fear their subsidized plan will become unaffordable. Without health coverage, they worry they won't be able to afford necessary surgeries or manage ongoing health issues.

“It worries me sometimes, because if you’re not healthy, then you’re not here for your kids,” Monreal said. “It’s a difficult decision, because, OK, do I spend $500 on a doctor’s visit or do I buy groceries?”

The choice between essential healthcare and basic necessities is one many Americans are expected to face as they prepare for open enrollment in November amidst the backdrop of a federal government shutdown. This year, enhanced tax credits have made premiums manageable for lower and middle-income families, but their expiration could more than double enrollment costs, according to analyses from healthcare research groups.

More than 24 million individuals rely on ACA health insurance, and many groups are vulnerable, including self-employed individuals without alternative coverage. If the tax credits are not extended, studies predict average premiums could soar by $1,016, forcing many to forgo insurance altogether and seeking emergency care that they cannot afford. This potential outcome may lead to increased hospital burdens, as hospitals deal with uninsured patients.

This situation is compounded by the current political deadlock in Congress, where Democrats are pushing for an extension of the subsidies while Republicans claim discussions can only commence after government funding is secured. Meanwhile, families like the Monreals wait uncertainly as they approach the open enrollment period.

Experts express concern about the implications of a significant rise in premiums and coverage loss. The expiration of subsidies may disproportionately affect lower-income individuals who depend on them. Notably, without affordable insurance, people's health and economic status may decline, leading to adverse healthcare outcomes and financial strain.

“If you have less subsidies for people getting health insurance, you’re going to have less health coverage,” warned health policy analysts, reinforcing the urgency for legislative resolution.