In the final stretch before Election Day, the latest Times/Siena polls reveal a fiercely contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. With just one day remaining, Harris has edged ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump claims a lead in Arizona. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, with all seven states too close to call, as the results fall within the margin of sampling error.
Typically, the final polls would point toward a clearer favorite, even if that candidate doesn’t prevail in the end. However, as noted by Nate Cohn, the Times' chief political analyst, this particular election defies that trend. The overall polling landscape remains relatively consistent since previous rounds, albeit with a notable shift; Harris has gained ground among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, while Trump has solidified support from white voters without degrees.
The latest survey highlights a significant gender divide; Trump leads among men in battleground states by a margin of 16 percentage points, while Harris commands an equal lead among women. This election marks the first time that abortion has emerged as the most crucial issue for women when determining their vote.
Inquiries from readers have shed light on the complexity of Pennsylvania's political makeup, a critical swing state. National reporter Campbell Robertson explained that Pennsylvania's electoral tendencies stem from a juxtaposition of two Democratic strongholds—Philadelphia and Pittsburgh—against a backdrop of conservative-leaning suburban and rural regions. Despite a growing population of college-educated and nonwhite residents, the majority of voters in Pennsylvania are still white and lack college degrees, a demographic that has leaned towards Trump over the years as traditional industries have waned.
Typically, the final polls would point toward a clearer favorite, even if that candidate doesn’t prevail in the end. However, as noted by Nate Cohn, the Times' chief political analyst, this particular election defies that trend. The overall polling landscape remains relatively consistent since previous rounds, albeit with a notable shift; Harris has gained ground among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, while Trump has solidified support from white voters without degrees.
The latest survey highlights a significant gender divide; Trump leads among men in battleground states by a margin of 16 percentage points, while Harris commands an equal lead among women. This election marks the first time that abortion has emerged as the most crucial issue for women when determining their vote.
Inquiries from readers have shed light on the complexity of Pennsylvania's political makeup, a critical swing state. National reporter Campbell Robertson explained that Pennsylvania's electoral tendencies stem from a juxtaposition of two Democratic strongholds—Philadelphia and Pittsburgh—against a backdrop of conservative-leaning suburban and rural regions. Despite a growing population of college-educated and nonwhite residents, the majority of voters in Pennsylvania are still white and lack college degrees, a demographic that has leaned towards Trump over the years as traditional industries have waned.
