In September 2018, as Jair Bolsonaro campaigned in the south-eastern city of Juiz de Fora, a 40-year-old man pushed through the crowd and stabbed the presidential candidate in the stomach. Images of Bolsonaro doubled over in pain while wearing a T-shirt in Brazil's football colours circulated widely, propelling his outsider status and helping him secure victory weeks later.
Fast forward to 2025, and Brazil's Supreme Court has convicted him of plotting a coup, sentencing him to more than 27 years in prison. His political career seems over, yet he retains significant influence and is being supported by allies pushing for amnesty, indicating that a comeback might not be entirely out of the question.
The long road to power
Despite his inflammatory rhetoric, Bolsonaro remained underappreciated by Brazil's political establishment prior to his presidency. In the months leading up to the 2018 election, he was seen as lacking the infrastructure necessary to secure a win. However, Brazil had experienced considerable turmoil, with political scandals and economic malaise contributing to a societal craving for a radical change.
Bolsonaro seized the moment, leveraging social media to harness the disillusionment of voters from various sectors, including the middle class and the evangelical community. This coalition turned out en masse in the October elections, ushering in a presidency unlike any seen in democratic Brazil since the military regime ended in the 1980s.
An outsider who changed everything
Bolsonaro's administration was marked by controversial policies including non-compliance with pandemic regulations, promotion of unproven medical treatments, and environmental deregulation leading to Amazon deforestation. His admiration for Donald Trump framed Brazil's international relations and shifted domestic policies toward a pro-business agenda.
The president's nemesis
Throughout his presidency, Bolsonaro faced significant opposition from various sectors, particularly from the Supreme Court, which consistently invalidated many of his decrees and actions. Justice Alexandre de Moraes emerged as a notable adversary, often at the forefront of legal challenges that Bolsonaro faced.
Conspiracy and election controversy
As Lula prepared for a run in the 2022 elections, Bolsonaro and his supporters launched unfounded allegations about the integrity of the electoral process. When Lula won by a narrow margin, Bolsonaro's refusal to concede led to protests, roadblocks, and demands for military intervention to contest the results.
Obstinance turns to violence
After the election, the still-sitting president encouraged protests leading to riots at the nation's capital, mirroring the U.S. Capitol attack. Bolsonaro’s absence during the transition, departing to Florida prior to Lula's inauguration, further signified his unwillingness to accept defeat.
The end of the line... for now
Upon returning to Brazil, Bolsonaro regrouped his supporters eyeing future elections. Yet, an array of legal challenges loomed as the Supreme Court prepared to proceed with his trial. Despite his conviction, whispers of potential amnesty circulate. Political analysts express concern over the implications of Bolsonaro's enduring influence on Brazil's democracy and future governance.
