Czechs go to the polls on Friday and Saturday facing a deteriorating security situation in Europe and fears of Russian interference.

Populist billionaire Andrej Babis, 71, is tipped to head the next government, replacing the strongly pro-Western, pro-Ukraine coalition.

But he'll likely need allies on the extremes of Czech politics – and their price will not be cheap.

We'll never drag the Czech Republic to the East. I can absolutely rule that out, Babis told a crowd of mostly elderly supporters, gathered around a stage in the former steel town of Kladno, just outside Prague.

We weren't the ones who sat down with Putin - we were the ones who expelled Russian diplomats! he went on, referring to measures taken in his first term following revelations that Russia's GRU military intelligence had blown up a Czech ammunition dump in 2014.

A row of grey heads nodded as the former prime minister warmed to his theme.

And never - I repeat, never - will we consider leaving the European Union. Look at what happened to Great Britain! And they're a nuclear power. They've got gas, oil, a fishing industry. They're friends with Trump, he added.

Many supporters were wearing Babis's red baseball cap emblazoned with the words Strong Czechia – heavily inspired by Trump's Maga movement.

The problem for Babis – and it could soon become a problem for Nato and the EU – is that his ANO party is unlikely to win an overall majority.

Instead, he will likely need to form alliances with smaller parties on the fringes of Czech politics.

Opinion polls and public statements suggest his choice of potential allies will be limited to the ultra-nationalist SPD, the anti-Green-Deal Motorists, and Enough! - who are an ad-hoc coalition of rebranded Communists, the remnants of the once-mighty Social Democrats, and a blogger in a black hat who calls himself Pitchfork (the Czech word for redneck).

On Wednesday night, during his only head-to-head debate with Prime Minister Petr Fiala, Andrej Babis ruled out forming a coalition with the Communists. I'll sign a piece of paper to that effect right here in the studio, he said.

Several of his potential allies want referendums on leaving the EU and Nato.

ANO says that is not going to happen.

We criticise the European Union, but we don't want to destroy it, we want to reform it, deputy leader Karel Havlicek told the BBC.

And Nato, well, we can criticise many things about it, but joining Nato was the most important milestone in the history of the Czech Republic, and our position is to strengthen it, he went on.

Across town, 19-year-old political science student Ondrej Kapralek, who is an activist for the liberal Pirate Party, is preparing to vote in his first election.

The Pirates were part of the centre-right government until they left the coalition over a bungled digitalisation scheme. But their political star is rising again, and could attract voters disillusioned with both the government and the populist or extremist opposition.

The presence of Russia-friendly parties in an ANO-led government should set alarm bells ringing across Europe, as these parties will want what is good for the Kremlin.

They will ask ANO to stop supporting Ukraine, to end the Czech ammunition initiative, to oppose sanctions against Russia. ANO has already said it will scrap the initiative, which has supplied 3.5 million artillery shells to Ukraine.

If the opinion polls are accurate, the Czech government's loyalty to the EU, to Nato, and to the defence of Ukraine – which has been unwavering – will soon be called into question.