WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. population is projected to grow by 15 million in 30 years, a smaller estimate than in previous years, due to President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration policies and an aging population, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.
The nonpartisan budget office projected that the U.S. population will be 364 million in 30 years, 2.2% smaller than it had previously predicted. In September, the office issued a revised demographics report that showed Trump’s plans for mass deportations and other strict immigration measures would result in roughly 320,000 people removed from the United States over the next 10 years.
The country’s total population is projected to stop growing in 2056 and remain roughly the same size as in the previous year. Without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030.
Demographer William Frey noted that this demographic shift poses challenges, stating, Even if the limits on immigration and increased deportations end with the Trump administration in three years, it's still a demographic shock.
Social Security and Medicare, which are already straining under an aging population, will face heightened pressure with fewer people contributing taxes. By the end of the decade, all of the nation’s baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, will be over age 65.
The latest figures reflect Trump’s intention to mass-deport undocumented immigrants and curb new immigration, affecting long-term population growth expectations. Furthermore, declining fertility rates below replacement levels suggest that the number of births will not compensate for the aging population.
According to the CBO, the population's growth dynamics hinge significantly on immigration trends, which can vary dramatically. Reductions in immigration levels beyond projections may continue to impact the overall economic landscape and social safety nets in the coming years as the effect of these policies unfolds.
The nonpartisan budget office projected that the U.S. population will be 364 million in 30 years, 2.2% smaller than it had previously predicted. In September, the office issued a revised demographics report that showed Trump’s plans for mass deportations and other strict immigration measures would result in roughly 320,000 people removed from the United States over the next 10 years.
The country’s total population is projected to stop growing in 2056 and remain roughly the same size as in the previous year. Without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030.
Demographer William Frey noted that this demographic shift poses challenges, stating, Even if the limits on immigration and increased deportations end with the Trump administration in three years, it's still a demographic shock.
Social Security and Medicare, which are already straining under an aging population, will face heightened pressure with fewer people contributing taxes. By the end of the decade, all of the nation’s baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, will be over age 65.
The latest figures reflect Trump’s intention to mass-deport undocumented immigrants and curb new immigration, affecting long-term population growth expectations. Furthermore, declining fertility rates below replacement levels suggest that the number of births will not compensate for the aging population.
According to the CBO, the population's growth dynamics hinge significantly on immigration trends, which can vary dramatically. Reductions in immigration levels beyond projections may continue to impact the overall economic landscape and social safety nets in the coming years as the effect of these policies unfolds.
