Ukraine could be facing its biggest loss for months, if the key eastern city of Pokrovsk falls to Russian forces. The battle for this strategic point on a major road and rail artery in the Donetsk region has been ongoing for over a year.

If Russia's Vladimir Putin succeeds, he would move closer to controlling Ukraine's industrial east - the Donbas region comprising Donetsk and Luhansk.

How close is Pokrovsk to falling?

Claims and counter-claims abound, complicating the situation. Russia has assembled tens of thousands of troops in the area, successfully infiltrating buildings and streets in Pokrovsk. Ukrainian officials maintain that their forces are actively resisting and have managed to reclaim some strategic points.

However, open-source intelligence indicates that Russian troops occupy significant areas within the city. A Ukrainian regiment expressed concerns about being outnumbered, with over 1,000 soldiers at risk of encirclement.

Why is this city so crucial for Russia?

Since capturing Avdiivka in February 2024, Russia has focused its efforts on Pokrovsk, viewing it as pivotal for further assaults in the Donetsk region. Capturing Pokrovsk would undermine Ukraine’s defenses, potentially allowing Russian forces to advance on Myrnohrad, Kostyantynivka, and the array of "fortress cities" critical to Ukraine's military.

What makes Pokrovsk significant for Ukraine?

Although currently largely deserted, Pokrovsk has been vital for Ukraine during the invasion, serving as a military stronghold and a key junction for transport routes. Losing it could facilitate Russian advances towards Dnipropetrovsk, thereby posing a significant threat to broader regional stability.

Would the fall of Pokrovsk change the war?

A fall of Pokrovsk would undoubtedly affect morale in Ukraine and could influence geopolitical strategies, particularly involving U.S. negotiations with Russia. Nevertheless, experts believe that capturing this city would not necessarily lead to an immediate operational advantage, as Ukraine still retains defensive depth and potential to regroup.