Negotiators from Israel and Hamas are heading to Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to start indirect talks over an end to the Israel-Gaza war. It is the closest both sides have come to a deal since the war began two years ago.
However, Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan, which Israel has agreed to and Hamas has partially accepted, serves only as a brief framework. Major sticking points continue to challenge both parties.
Hostage Release Structure
Trump's plan stipulates that all remaining hostages be released within 72 hours of an agreement. Approximately 48 Israeli hostages are believed to remain in Gaza, with 20 thought to be alive. While Trump suggested that releases could happen very soon, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated that they might occur before the Jewish holiday Sukkot, which concludes on October 13. Although Hamas has partially agreed to the hostage exchange plan, the group may be reluctant to release hostages without guarantees on other deal elements.
Trust between the parties is nearly nonexistent—only last month, Israel attempted an airstrike on Hamas's negotiating team in Doha, which drew ire from both Hamas and Trump.
Hamas Disarmament
Israel's war objective remains the destruction of Hamas, with Netanyahu asserting he will not cease until this is achieved. Importantly, Trump's plan outlines an expectation for Hamas to disarm, yet the group has consistently refused to do so, insisting on disarmament only after the establishment of a Palestinian state. With Hamas's recent response lacking any commitment to disarm, speculation remains that their stance has not shifted.
Future Governance of Gaza
According to Trump's plan, Hamas would play no role in Gaza's future governance, which would transition to a body of Palestinian technocrats, overseen by a Board of Peace that includes Trump and former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. The territory would ultimately be handed to the Palestinian Authority (PA). Netanyahu, however, seems reluctant to allow the PA any governance role, which may conflict with the expectations of ultranationalist elements in his coalition.
In its response, Hamas hinted it expects to retain some role in governance as part of a unified Palestinian movement—a position likely unacceptable to Trump and Israel.
Israeli Withdrawal
The extent of Israel's military withdrawal also poses a significant issue. Trump's plan describes a phased withdrawal contingent on agreed standards and timelines. Current drafts imply that Israel would maintain control of significant portions of Gaza during various withdrawal stages—a fact that may frustrate Hamas, who seeks clarity on full military withdrawal terms.
Moreover, discrepancies exist between maps provided by the White House and the Israeli military's own delineation of militarized zones, casting further doubt on the withdrawal arrangements.
As both sides prepare to discuss these critical issues, the outcome of the negotiations remains uncertain amid deep-seated distrust and differing objectives.