In brief
The expiration of a gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia raises tensions while the EU prepares for the change.
Ukraine is set to halt the transit of Russian gas to Europe as the five-year agreement between Naftogaz and Gazprom comes to an end. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the country would not permit Russia to profit from "our blood," giving the European Union a year to adjust. This decision follows a significant reduction in Russian gas imports into the EU since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite this, some Eastern European nations still rely heavily on these supplies, which previously generated about €5 billion annually for Russia.The European Commission responded by asserting that the continent has a "resilient and flexible" gas system, assuring that there is enough capacity to manage the cessation of Ukrainian transit. In 2023, Russian gas accounted for under 10% of the EU’s imports compared to 40% in 2021, though nations like Slovakia and Austria remain reliant on these flows. Following Ukraine’s announcement, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico warned of potential electricity supply cuts to Ukraine, leading to accusations from Zelensky of aiding Russia amid the ongoing conflict.Poland has voiced its intention to support Ukraine in case of energy supply disruptions, which are also critical for Moldova, a non-EU country that heavily depends on gas for electricity production. Moldovan authorities have urged citizens to conserve energy amid a state of emergency in the energy sector. President Maia Sandu condemned the Kremlin’s actions as "blackmail" aimed at destabilizing Moldova ahead of its elections in 2025.Since 1991, Russian gas has flowed to Europe through Ukraine; however, the EU has increasingly sought alternatives like liquefied natural gas from the US and Qatar, as well as piped gas from Norway. With Ukraine's gas transit route closing, TurkStream will be the sole remaining conduit for Russian gas to Europe. December’s European Commission plans aim to facilitate the replacement of gas supplies previously routed through Ukraine, sourcing gas from Greece, Turkey, Romania, and expanding Norwegian gas supply through Poland.
