Ethiopia's Prosperity Party Wins Landslide, but Conflict Fears Persist
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party has secured an overwhelming majority, winning 438 of the 501 contested seats in the country’s latest general election. The result paves the way for he to be sworn in for another term in early October, a move that many supporters see as a promise of continued economic gains.
Despite the victory, the election was marred by low participation, accusations of repression, and a lack of opposition presence. Security concerns led to 143 polling stations being shut in the Amhara and Oromia regions, the country’s two most populous areas, and the entire Tigray region, home to 38 constituencies, was excluded from voting due to fears of renewed fighting.
The Fano militias in Amhara and the proscribed Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia have both rejected the results, demanding greater autonomy. Meanwhile, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) remains at odds with the central government, with both sides accusing each other of breaching a 2022 peace deal that ended the deadliest civil war in the region.
Security experts warn that Ethiopia could soon see a return to war as insurgent groups continue low‑level fighting. The volatile situation is compounded by regional rivalries: Eritrea now allies with Tigrayan forces, while Ethiopia is accused of supporting factions in Sudan’s civil conflict.
Analysts such as Cameron Hudson highlight that “the risks are real and are driven by both sides,” citing the potential for the situation in Tigray to spiral into a broader regional conflict. Magnus Taylor warns that the ongoing low‑level tensions form a “dangerous scenario,” even if an immediate return to full‑scale war is unlikely.
Amid these worries, the European Union has called for an immediate de‑escalation in northern Ethiopia, and the US has imposed targeted visa restrictions on hard‑line members of the TPLF, citing individuals responsible for undermining peace in the region.
Image: Abiy Ahmed at Ballot Box
Credit: Reuters
The broader picture shows a nation grappling with post‑war recovery, contested elections, and looming geopolitical tensions. The coming months will determine whether the Prosperity Party can keep Ethiopia in multi‑party rule or whether unresolved grievances spark a new round of conflict.
