The autumn sun glinted on a parade ground in Beijing as the People's Liberation Army showcased its hypersonic missile arsenal, with the formidable DF-17 missile represented prominently. These advanced weapons, revealed on October 1, 2019, signify a serious challenge to global military balance, with China advancing significantly in hypersonic technology. Analysts predict this may reshape modern warfare dynamics, reflecting a broader geopolitical competition reminiscent of the Cold War.
China’s progress leads in hypersonic capabilities, followed closely by Russia, while the US races to keep pace, and the UK has not yet entered this domain. William Freer, a national security expert, highlights that substantial early investments by China and Russia have contributed to their advantage. Meanwhile, the focus of many Western nations in recent years has been on counter-insurgency efforts rather than preparing for peer-on-peer conflicts. UK intelligence figures have acknowledged a failure to recognize China’s military rise.
Other countries, notably North Korea and Iran, are also developing hypersonic technologies, further complicating the landscape. The US has begun deploying new weapons like the Dark Eagle to mount a strategic response. However, questions remain regarding the effectiveness of US and UK's current defenses against hypersonic threats.
Hypersonic missiles travel at speeds greater than Mach 5 (approximately 3,858 mph), presenting detection challenges that differentiate them from conventional missiles. Russia's Avangard is reportedly capable of reaching speeds near Mach 27 (over 20,700 mph), although the exact capabilities of Russian claims have been subject to skepticism. Their unique trajectory and speed make them hard to intercept, forcing military strategists to rethink defense mechanisms.
In an escalating race for superiority, experts suggest the focus should not only be on developing new weapons but also bolstering defenses against these hypersonic threats, with innovations sought in space-based detection systems. Although analytics indicate there are measures to track hypersonic missiles, existing technologies have limitations.
A recent US Congressional Research Service report warns about inadequate detection capabilities for hypersonic weapons. While analysts argue some concerns may be exaggerated, the reality remains that the developments in China and Russia are formidable. The US, alongside its allies, is seeking to bridge the technological gap while reassessing strategies to counter these advanced weapon systems.
The stakes grow particularly concerning in regions like Eastern Europe where NATO remains vigilant against potential aggressions stemming from Russia’s capabilities, including hypersonic missiles like the recently tested Oreshnik. With President Putin asserting these technologies could annihilate targets, the fear escalates.
Finally, while the UK aims to rejuvenate its hypersonic development in collaboration with the US, substantial technological and strategic hurdles remain before these systems are operational. A cautionary stance from military experts highlights the need for balanced defense strategies that allow for both offense and defense to deter adversaries in an unpredictable and rapidly evolving arms race.