In brief
The battle for Sudan's oil-rich Kordofan region has intensified as both military factions seek dominance in a conflict that has claimed around 150,000 lives and displaced millions. Recent attacks have sparked international concerns about civilian casualties and humanitarian crises, marking Kordofan as a pivotal area in the struggle for power.
Sudan's oil-rich Kordofan region has emerged as a critical battleground amid the ongoing conflict between the army and rival paramilitary forces, with both sides vying for control of this resource-abundant territory. Attacks that resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths earlier this month have heightened the spotlight on this conflict zone.Amir Amin, an analyst at Oasis Policy Advisory, emphasized that control of Kordofan translates into control over Sudan’s oil supply and a significant portion of the country itself. Additionally, this region is vital for landlocked South Sudan, as its oil transits through Kordofan, making stability here crucial for South Sudan's interests.The military offensive to reclaim Kordofan began in June, following the army's push to regain territory lost to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after the latter made significant advancements, including the capture of Khartoum, Sudan's capital. Sudan's military leader, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has made limited trips to Khartoum since the onset of the conflict.The ongoing war has resulted in around 150,000 deaths and displaced almost 12 million individuals, a staggering figure roughly equal to the populations of Tunisia or Belgium. Initially, the RSF, which helped Burhan execute a coup in 2021, turned against him due to a failed plan to merge the paramilitary into the army.Analysts suggest that the army aims to eliminate RSF presence in Kordofan to facilitate further advances into Darfur, where the RSF originated. Conversely, the RSF sees capturing Kordofan as a strategic move to gain momentum and potentially recapture Khartoum.Dr. Suliman Baldo, from the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, believes the army may struggle to breach the RSF's stronghold in Kordofan, pointing out that the RSF fighters primarily hail from the Misseriya ethnic group who inhabit West Kordofan.Following airstrikes by the army in the region, local sentiment has soured, with RSF’s Aliyan vowing to retaliate against oil operations if attacks on civilians persist. The United Nations has condemned such strikes, highlighting the violations against civilian populations and calling for adherence to international humanitarian standards.Reports indicate that both sides are responsible for civilian casualties, with new statistics indicating over 450 lives lost in recent RSF-led assaults. The UN children's agency criticized the attacks as a horrifying escalation of violence.As the RSF prepares for an offensive against el-Obeid—the capital of North Kordofan—concern grows over the potential for increased civilian casualties. Control over Umm Sumaima is crucial for both the RSF and army, marking it as a strategic point in the conflict.With the Kordofan region covering approximately 390,000 sq km, expert opinions suggest the ongoing battle could lead to a significant shift in the war's dynamics, although whether it will determine an eventual victor remains uncertain.
