Panic, confusion and then a hasty White House climbdown - it was a weekend of whiplash for hundreds of thousands of Indians on H-1B visas. On Friday, US President Donald Trump stunned the tech world by announcing an up to 50-fold hike in the cost of skilled worker permits - to $100,000. Chaos followed: Silicon Valley firms urged staff not to travel outside the country, overseas workers scrambled for flights, and immigration lawyers worked overtime to decode the order. By Saturday, the White House sought to calm the storm, clarifying that the fee applied only to new applicants and was a one-off. Yet, the long-standing H-1B programme - criticised for undercutting American workers but praised for attracting global talent - still faces an uncertain future. Even with the tweak, the policy effectively shutters the H-1B pipeline that, for three decades, powered the American dream for millions of Indians and, more importantly, supplied the lifeblood of talent to US industries.
That pipeline reshaped both countries. For India, the H-1B became a vehicle of aspiration: small-town coders turned dollar earners, families vaulted into the middle class, and entire industries - from airlines to real estate - catered to a new class of globe-trotting Indians.
For the US, it meant an infusion of talent that filled labs, classrooms, hospitals and start-ups. Today, Indian-origin executives run Google, Microsoft and IBM, and Indian doctors make up nearly 6% of the US physician workforce. Indians dominate the H-1B programme, making up more than 70% of the recipients in recent years. In tech, their presence is even starker: a Freedom of Information Act request in 2015 showed over 80% of computer jobs went to Indian nationals.
Experts say pay data shows why Trump's new $100,000 fee is unworkable. In 2023, the median salary for new H-1B employees was $94,000, compared to $129,000 for those already in the system. Since the fee targets new hires, most won't earn enough to cover it, say experts.
"Since the latest White House directive indicates that the fee would only apply to new H-1B recipients, this could cause medium and long-term labour shortages instead of immediate disruption," Gil Guerra, an immigration policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, told the BBC.
This shock appears to primarily affect India first, but the ripple effects may run deeper in the US. Indian outsourcing giants such as TCS and Infosys, anticipating this, have long built local workforces and shifted delivery offshore. The numbers tell the story: Indians still account for 70% of H-1B recipients, but only three of the top 10 H-1B employers had ties to India in 2023, down from six in 2016.
The stakes are high, especially in the medical sector. In recent years, it has become evident that Indian professionals play a vital role in hospitals and healthcare systems across the US, underscoring the significant impact of any policy changes affecting H-1B visas. Experts warn that the fee hike may not only lead to labor shortages in key sectors but might also deter skilled professionals from considering the US for future employment opportunities, pushing them towards more favorable conditions elsewhere.
Furthermore, many Indian students who typically contribute to the US education system may reconsider their options, impacting future enrolments and the overall diversity of the academic landscape.
As the dust settles from this controversial new policy, the consequences remain uncertain, but analysts agree that the future of the H-1B program and its impact on US innovation and competitiveness is at stake.
That pipeline reshaped both countries. For India, the H-1B became a vehicle of aspiration: small-town coders turned dollar earners, families vaulted into the middle class, and entire industries - from airlines to real estate - catered to a new class of globe-trotting Indians.
For the US, it meant an infusion of talent that filled labs, classrooms, hospitals and start-ups. Today, Indian-origin executives run Google, Microsoft and IBM, and Indian doctors make up nearly 6% of the US physician workforce. Indians dominate the H-1B programme, making up more than 70% of the recipients in recent years. In tech, their presence is even starker: a Freedom of Information Act request in 2015 showed over 80% of computer jobs went to Indian nationals.
Experts say pay data shows why Trump's new $100,000 fee is unworkable. In 2023, the median salary for new H-1B employees was $94,000, compared to $129,000 for those already in the system. Since the fee targets new hires, most won't earn enough to cover it, say experts.
"Since the latest White House directive indicates that the fee would only apply to new H-1B recipients, this could cause medium and long-term labour shortages instead of immediate disruption," Gil Guerra, an immigration policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, told the BBC.
This shock appears to primarily affect India first, but the ripple effects may run deeper in the US. Indian outsourcing giants such as TCS and Infosys, anticipating this, have long built local workforces and shifted delivery offshore. The numbers tell the story: Indians still account for 70% of H-1B recipients, but only three of the top 10 H-1B employers had ties to India in 2023, down from six in 2016.
The stakes are high, especially in the medical sector. In recent years, it has become evident that Indian professionals play a vital role in hospitals and healthcare systems across the US, underscoring the significant impact of any policy changes affecting H-1B visas. Experts warn that the fee hike may not only lead to labor shortages in key sectors but might also deter skilled professionals from considering the US for future employment opportunities, pushing them towards more favorable conditions elsewhere.
Furthermore, many Indian students who typically contribute to the US education system may reconsider their options, impacting future enrolments and the overall diversity of the academic landscape.
As the dust settles from this controversial new policy, the consequences remain uncertain, but analysts agree that the future of the H-1B program and its impact on US innovation and competitiveness is at stake.
