The European Commission has unveiled plans to restrict trade with Israel and impose sanctions on extremist ministers in its government, marking what could be the EU's most robust response to the ongoing war in Gaza.


These proposals, previewed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week, aim to suspend trade-related provisions of the EU–Israel Association Agreement, thus revoking the preferential access Israeli goods currently enjoy in European markets. This change would apply tariffs on billions in exports, notably affecting agricultural products like dates and citrus fruits.


Despite the assertive rhetoric, the likelihood of these measures being approved is low, with Israeli officials denouncing them as morally and politically distorted.


The proposed trade restrictions need a qualified majority among EU member states for approval, while sanctions against individuals require unanimous consent. Dissent from key members like Germany and Italy, alongside calls from Ireland and Spain for more aggressive actions, complicates the adoption process.


Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy chief, acknowledged the significant political divides in the European Council regarding this proposal.


Additionally, the measures aim to target those in Israel associated with militant groups and violent activities in the West Bank, as well as members of the Israeli government identified as extremists.


Currently, the EU is Israel's largest trading partner, handling 32% of its goods trade, valued at approximately €42.6 billion in 2024. However, experts predict that the economic impact from enforcing tariff changes would be limited to around €227 million annually.


One aspect of the plan that could take immediate effect is the suspension of bilateral support to the Israeli government, with a minor budget of €9.4 million remaining out of a total allocated for 2020–2024. This change, however, is largely symbolic and does not require member states' agreement.


Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has likened the proposed actions to measures against Israel as detrimental to European interests, suggesting that repercussions would follow against Europe.


As the proposals await discussion and potential voting in upcoming member state meetings, the specific timeline remains unclear.