In brief
As Russia aims to solidify its control over Donetsk, Ukraine's defense relies heavily on the territory. With approximately 70% of the region occupied by Russian forces, the battle over Donetsk is not just about land but also about maintaining crucial military positions and preventing future offensives.
As the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, the significance of the Donetsk region has come into sharp focus. A recent summit in Alaska revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to freeze the war along current front lines in exchange for Ukraine relinquishing control over the remaining parts of Donetsk. Currently, Russia occupies about 70% of the oblast, including its capital, and aims to secure its claim, thereby avoiding additional military setbacks. For Ukraine, relinquishing western Donetsk means not only territory loss but also the potential for a fresh wave of refugees and a critical weakening of its defense capabilities.As reported by Reuters, Ukraine still controls approximately 6,600 square kilometers of land in Donetsk, with a remaining population of around 250,000. Key urban areas include Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Kostyantynivka, all vital for Ukraine's industrial output, although the ongoing conflict has devastated the local economy. Dr. Marnie Howlett of the University of Oxford emphasizes that current resource access will be hampered for years due to the extensive landmines laid throughout the region, with many towns destroyed.The region's "fortress belt," as described by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), represents a formidable defensive structure Ukraine has established over the years. Spanning 50 kilometers, this area includes strategic trenches, bunkers, and anti-tank obstacles, crucial for fending off Russian advances. The terrain itself—the Chasiv Yar height—offers defensive advantages, although it does not fully favor Ukrainian forces given the higher ground in the city of Donetsk.In light of these challenges, questions arise about whether Ukraine could successfully rebuild its defenses should the conflict reach a temporary halt. Theoretically, moving defense lines west could be an option; however, the logistics of doing so are complex and fraught with risk. Analysts, such as Rusi's Nick Reynolds, suggest that the Ukrainian military is unlikely to concede western Donetsk without significant resistance. President Volodymyr Zelensky has been vocal in his stance against giving away the Donbas region to conclude fighting, fearing it would set the stage for future attacks.While the conflict environment remains volatile, the stakes surrounding Donetsk continue to rise, reflecting its critical role in Ukraine’s national defense strategy.
