In brief
Over 1,000 days of sanctions have not toppled Vladimir Putin's regime or decisively affected the war effort against Ukraine, sparking debate on their effectiveness, especially as Trump pledges a different approach.
The geopolitical landscape surrounding the Ukraine war has seen thousands of sanctions levied against Russian entities since its full-scale invasion by Moscow in 2022. With President-elect Donald J. Trump soon to take office, the discussion regarding the efficacy and future application of these sanctions is reigniting. Trump has indicated a preference for minimal use of sanctions, aiming for a swift resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.Experts argue that the sanctions, while extensive, have not achieved their intended outcomes of destabilizing Putin's government or crippling the Russian economy, as initially anticipated. Putin remains firmly in power, and his military actions continue to threaten Ukraine significantly. This raises critical questions about the leverage sanctions provide in future negotiations and how they will play out under the new U.S. administration.Russian economist Sergei Guriev asserts that the idea of sanctions ending the conflict quickly was more hopeful thinking than grounded in reality. The ongoing debate surrounding the effectiveness of these sanctions will likely gain momentum in the coming months, particularly as Trump prepares to shift American policies towards Russia and Ukraine.
