New Reports Suggest German Intelligence Believed COVID-19 Lab Leak Highly Likely

Thu Oct 16 2025 22:18:06 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

Documents reveal the German foreign intelligence service assessed an 80-90% chance COVID-19 originated from a Chinese laboratory, raising questions about pandemic origins.

German media reports indicate that the BND, Germany's foreign intelligence agency, believed there was a high probability (80-90%) that COVID-19 leaked accidentally from a lab in Wuhan. This assessment, conducted in 2020, revealed indications of safety violations at the Wuhan Institute of Virology during experiments on transmissible viruses. China denies the lab leak theory, suggesting scientific investigations are necessary, while the World Health Organization deemed it "extremely unlikely." Ongoing debates continue over the origins of the virus, with intelligence agencies increasingly exploring the lab leak hypothesis.

Germany's foreign intelligence service, the BND, reportedly held a belief as high as 80-90% that the coronavirus may have accidentally leaked from a lab, according to revelations from two German newspapers. This assessment was part of a classified investigation conducted in 2020 focused on the virus’s origins in the context of the ongoing pandemic but was not published until recently.

The BND had obtained indications that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was conducting experiments to modify viruses to enhance their transmissibility to humans, linking these activities to their assessment of the lab leak theory. Despite repeated denials from China regarding any lab-related origin, which they argue should be determined through scientific inquiry, many intelligence agencies have been reevaluating the lab leak theory.

The intelligence report from Germany coincides with similar statements from the US CIA, which earlier this year suggested a "research-related origin" of the virus was more plausible than zoonotic transmission from animals. In its assessment, the BND did not claim definitive proof, but it found evidence suggesting that safety protocols had potentially been violated at the lab.

The origins of COVID-19 remain a contentious issue, with no clear consensus among scientists. The first collaborative report by a World Health Organization team, which visited Wuhan in early 2021, concluded the lab-leak scenario was "extremely unlikely." However, critics have since pointed out the report's insufficient attention to the lab leak theory, questioning its reliability.

Opponents of the lab leak theory point to the natural origin hypothesis, which posits that the virus emerged in bats and was transmitted to humans possibly through intermediary species. Despite early widespread acceptance of this view, the absence of identified animal hosts linked to COVID-19 has fueled ongoing skepticism about this narrative.

Responses from Germany have been muted, with both the BND and Chancellor Olaf Scholz declining to make further comments on the situation. In contrast, China's foreign ministry has insisted that the investigation’s conclusions regarding the virus's origins should remain within the scientific community, emphasizing the importance of tackling the matter without political interference.