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The Strain of War: Assessing Russia's Military Losses in Ukraine

Despite recent territorial gains, Russia faces significant challenges in sustaining its military due to high casualty rates.

By Anatoly KurmanaevSource: nytimes.com1 min read
The Strain of War: Assessing Russia's Military Losses in Ukraine
Image via nytimes.com

In brief

In October, Russia achieved notable territorial advancements in Ukraine's Donbas region but suffered staggering losses. Experts highlight the difficulty in assessing actual casualties, emphasizing that true military strength is determined by irreplaceable losses. The influx of North Korean troops complicates the picture of Russia's army sustainability as it grapples with ongoing fatalities.

Russia's military has made significant territorial gains in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region recently, but the cost has been considerable, with reports indicating an unprecedented number of casualties in October. According to assessments by British and Ukrainian military officials and researchers from the BBC, the month marked the highest rate of fatalities and injuries for Russian forces.As Moscow grapples with these substantial losses, questions arise about its capacity to replenish its forces. The addition of thousands of North Korean troops to the Russian ranks further complicates the situation, leading to a broader examination of Russia’s military sustainability amidst continued conflict.Obtaining precise figures on Russian casualties proves challenging. The Kremlin tends to underreport losses, while Ukraine and its allies have a tendency to exaggerate them. Most Western estimates merge fatalities with all injuries, but military analysts suggest that this approach is flawed, as it fails to distinguish between lightly wounded soldiers who may recover quickly and those who are lost permanently—either through death or severe injury.Ultimately, the key to understanding a military's operational capability lies in accounting for its true permanent losses—the individuals who either can no longer fight due to death or debilitating injuries. As the war continues, ensuring accurate assessments of these losses is crucial to grasping the overall state of Russia’s military strength in Ukraine.

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