On 4 October, Brazilians turned out to vote in a general election that pits the country’s most famous politician, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, against the son of the man who beat him four years earlier, Flávio Bolsonaro.
Who Are the Contenders?
Lula, now 80, has served three terms as president and is the front‑runner with roughly 40% in opinion polls. He was praised for lifting millions out of poverty during his first stint, though his party has faced corruption scandals. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has been a senator since 2019 and is courting his father’s loyal base while pledging a tough‑on‑crime record and more relaxed gun laws.
Sweet‑Eater Politics in the Shadows of a Coup
Neither Bolsonaro nor his father, the 71‑year‑old former president, can run. Jair Salman is serving a 27‑year criminal sentence for attempting to overturn the 2022 election results—the decade’s most violent coup attempt. Despite his house‑arrest status, Jair’s image remains a powerful symbol, evidenced by a deep‑fake avatar that recently appeared in Flávio’s campaign launch.
Indeed, What Do the Polls Say?
Except for Lula and Bolsonaro, the remaining eleven candidates poll at 4% or under. The final run‑off date is set for 25 October if no one reaches 50% first. Polls indicate that about 9% of voters are still undecided or plan to spoil the ballot, stressing that turnout will be decisive.
Lula’s Platform of Stability and Reform
Lula’s campaign stresses continuity with his earlier social‑policy successes, a pledge to phase out fossil fuels while leveraging oil revenues for green transition, and a record of reduced Amazon deforestation. His critics question the short‑term environmental impacts of offshore drilling, but he maintains that such measures finance broader climate goals.
Bolsonaro’s Vision of Law, Order and Alliance
Bolsonaro’s policy focus is a tougher judiciary, lower taxes for farmers, and alignment with the US anti‑crime agenda. He has already leaned on the ‘Shield of the Americas’ alliance and promised to expand gun ownership for citizens defending themselves against crime.
Corruption Storms Raising Questions
The scandal involving banker Daniel Vorcaro—who allegedly funded a biopic of Jair Bolsonaro—has pushed corruption to the front of the debate. Probes now turn to ties between Vorcaro, Lula’s ally Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes and the alleged safeguarding of corrupt links, creating a reputational tug‑of‑war for both camps.
