Analysis of the Controversial US Draft Plan for Russia-Ukraine Peace

Sun Nov 30 2025 23:03:05 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

A leaked US draft plan proposes significant changes in Ukraine's military and territorial integrity as terms for peace with Russia. Key points reveal potential concessions and strategic implications that raise concerns among Ukrainians.

The recently leaked US draft plan to end the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine suggests controversial measures including territorial concessions and military limitations for Ukraine. The draft calls for handing over Ukrainian territories in the Donbas region to Russia, reducing Ukraine's armed forces to 600,000 personnel, and entails a potential shift in Ukraine's strategic alliances, promoting EU membership while blocking NATO accession. Key aspects of the draft have raised debates over its implications for Ukrainian sovereignty and Russian reintegration into international structures.

What we know about leaked US draft plan to end Russia's Ukraine war

The draft US-Russia peace plan has been widely leaked and proposes to hand over areas of Ukraine's industrial eastern Donbas region still under Ukrainian control to the de facto control of Vladimir Putin's Russia. The latest versions of the text also call for Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces to 600,000 people. But what else is known about the text and who stands to benefit from it most?

What are the key points?

The draft outlines 28 key points; some could be acceptable to Ukraine, while others appear vague and imprecise. Ukraine's sovereignty would be 'confirmed' and there would be a 'total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe' with security guarantees for Kyiv. However, details remain unclear on the security guarantees' robustness.

Handover of Ukraine's territory and cut in armed forces

Among the most contentious proposals includes ceding Ukrainian territory and reducing the armed forces, which are currently estimated at 880,000 active personnel. The draft states 'Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control,' establishing a demilitarized buffer zone recognized as Russian territory. This proposal is likely unacceptable to most Ukrainians.

Ukraine's future - with EU but not NATO

The draft also proposes that Ukraine enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, while being eligible for EU membership and gaining preferential market access. This proposal contradicts existing Ukrainian constitutional claims to join both NATO and the EU, further complicating discussions.

Bringing Russia back from isolation

The draft includes plans for re-integrating Russia into the global economy and inviting it back into the G8, despite ongoing sanctions and the country being under arrest warrants from the ICC. This part of the draft seems far-fetched at this stage.

What about Russia's frozen assets?

The draft suggests that $100 billion of frozen Russian assets be used to invest in US-led efforts for rebuilding Ukraine, with profits split between the US and Europe. These financial arrangements have raised concerns about adequacy and distribution of reconstruction funds.

What is not in the plan?

Notably absent from the plan are restrictions on Ukraine's military capabilities or arms industry, leaving concerns unaddressed regarding potential Ukrainian missile development.

Is this a definitive peace plan?

Despite the push for a rapid approval process by the US, key players express that this draft is more of a guideline rather than a final proposal, with certain details still in flux.

Is the draft a Putin wishlist?

Concerns have been raised about the plan resembling concessions favorable to Russia, with calls for lifting sanctions and a 'full amnesty' for all parties indicating a potential bias. As it stands, the draft leaves many questions unanswered regarding its viability and acceptance by Ukraine.